China → India
This score represents China's relationship toward India. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
4 documented factors produce the -43 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Armed forces face an unresolved boundaryBaseline rule · 2015
The joint statement treats boundary settlement as a strategic objective and records military-facing confidence mechanisms pending resolution.
- +15Border defence confidence mechanismsBaseline rule · 2015
The parties committed to military exchanges, a headquarters hotline and additional border meeting points.
- -40LAC crisis and Galwan clashActive event · 2020
Attempts to alter the status quo and the lethal Galwan confrontation sharply worsen security and diplomacy.
- +22Depsang and Demchok disengagementActive event · 2024
The patrolling arrangement resolves the 2020 friction points while the broader boundary dispute remains.
5 documented factors produce the +13 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Prime-ministerial visit expands the partnershipBaseline rule · 2015
Prime Minister Modi’s China visit produced a broad joint statement and twenty-four governmental agreements.
- +10Dense institutional dialogueBaseline rule · 2015
The relationship included leader, strategic, border, economic, military, provincial and people-to-people mechanisms.
- -15Boundary, visa and river concerns remainBaseline rule · 2015
The official visit record acknowledges unresolved differences that required continued management.
- -28LAC crisis and Galwan clashActive event · 2020
Attempts to alter the status quo and the lethal Galwan confrontation sharply worsen security and diplomacy.
- +26Depsang and Demchok disengagementActive event · 2024
The patrolling arrangement resolves the 2020 friction points while the broader boundary dispute remains.
4 documented factors produce the 0 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Commercial agreements and development mechanismsBaseline rule · 2015
The annual report records twenty-six commercial agreements worth approximately $22bn alongside governmental cooperation.
- -15Large trade imbalance remains a concernBaseline rule · 2015
India raised its growing trade deficit and sought improved market access during the leaders’ talks.
- +20Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -20Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
1 documented factor produce the +15 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +15United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
4 documented factors produce the -45 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Boundary settlement remains unresolvedBaseline rule · 2015
Both parties formally identified the boundary question as an outstanding strategic issue requiring political settlement.
- +15Formal boundary-management architectureBaseline rule · 2015
Special Representatives, working mechanisms and border protocols provided institutional dispute management.
- -30LAC crisis and Galwan clashActive event · 2020
Attempts to alter the status quo and the lethal Galwan confrontation sharply worsen security and diplomacy.
- +20Depsang and Demchok disengagementActive event · 2024
The patrolling arrangement resolves the 2020 friction points while the broader boundary dispute remains.
2 documented factors produce the +10 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Education, youth, pilgrimage and cultural exchangesBaseline rule · 2015
The parties expanded education programs, annual youth exchanges, pilgrimage access and cultural institutions.
- -10LAC crisis and Galwan clashActive event · 2020
Attempts to alter the status quo and the lethal Galwan confrontation sharply worsen security and diplomacy.
-4 in 2015 → -15 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
5 points
China → India and India → China remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
LAC crisis and Galwan clash
Attempts to alter the status quo and the lethal Galwan confrontation sharply worsen security and diplomacy.
Depsang and Demchok disengagement
The patrolling arrangement resolves the 2020 friction points while the broader boundary dispute remains.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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