Mexico → United States
This score represents Mexico's relationship toward United States. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
2 documented factors produce the +30 security assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Formal cross-border security cooperation managed shared risksBaseline rule · 2015
Formal cross-border security cooperation managed shared risks.
- +15Bicentennial Framework institutionalizes security cooperationActive event · 2022
The high-level framework coordinates public health, community safety and action against transnational criminal networks.
Coverage gap: No mutual-defence treaty or integrated binational command exists; formal cooperation is scored as a guardrail.
6 documented factors produce the +45 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +35Close and productive partnership across shared bilateral challengesBaseline rule · 2015
Close and productive partnership across shared bilateral challenges.
- +10Cabinet-level economic and sectoral dialogueBaseline rule · 2015
Cabinet-level economic and sectoral dialogue.
- -20Tariff and border dispute creates bilateral frictionActive event · 2025
The United States imposed additional tariffs linked to migration and fentanyl, straining trade and diplomacy.
- +10Bicentennial Framework institutionalizes security cooperationActive event · 2022
The high-level framework coordinates public health, community safety and action against transnational criminal networks.
- +5USMCA enters into forceActive event · 2020
The new agreement preserves and modernizes the deeply integrated continental trade framework.
- +5Governments launch the USMCA review processActive event · 2026
The joint review channel preserves negotiation over supply chains, rules of origin and continental competitiveness.
6 documented factors produce the +60 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15High-Level Economic Dialogue for an integrated economyBaseline rule · 2015
High-Level Economic Dialogue for an integrated economy.
- +35Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -30Tariff and border dispute creates bilateral frictionActive event · 2025
The United States imposed additional tariffs linked to migration and fentanyl, straining trade and diplomacy.
- +15USMCA enters into forceActive event · 2020
The new agreement preserves and modernizes the deeply integrated continental trade framework.
- +10Governments launch the USMCA review processActive event · 2026
The joint review channel preserves negotiation over supply chains, rules of origin and continental competitiveness.
- +15Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
2 documented factors produce the -20 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Regional and global cooperation through shared North American initiativesBaseline rule · 2015
Regional and global cooperation through shared North American initiatives.
- -30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
1 documented factor produce the +15 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Managed border within a durable bilateral frameworkBaseline rule · 2015
Managed border within a durable bilateral framework.
1 documented factor produce the +35 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +35Exceptional educational, family and cross-border citizen linksBaseline rule · 2015
Exceptional educational, family and cross-border citizen links.
+21 in 2015 → +28 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
2 points
Mexico → United States and United States → Mexico remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Tariff and border dispute creates bilateral friction
The United States imposed additional tariffs linked to migration and fentanyl, straining trade and diplomacy.
Bicentennial Framework institutionalizes security cooperation
The high-level framework coordinates public health, community safety and action against transnational criminal networks.
USMCA enters into force
The new agreement preserves and modernizes the deeply integrated continental trade framework.
Governments launch the USMCA review process
The joint review channel preserves negotiation over supply chains, rules of origin and continental competitiveness.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →