Türkiye → United States
This score represents Türkiye's relationship toward United States. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
4 documented factors produce the +60 security assessment.
Why this score?
- +60Continuing NATO collective-defence obligationBaseline rule · 2015
Türkiye and the United States remained bound by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- +25Integrated counter-ISIL operationsBaseline rule · 2015
The governments deepened military cooperation and use of Incirlik in the multinational campaign against ISIL.
- -35S-400 purchase ruptures F-35 cooperationActive event · 2019
The Russian S-400 acquisition was judged incompatible with the F-35, triggering Türkiye's removal from programme activity and a durable allied-security dispute.
- +10Strategic Mechanism restores structured cooperationActive event · 2023
The governments resumed a results-oriented agenda covering defence, Ukraine, NATO, regional security, trade, climate and energy while the S-400 dispute remained unresolved.
4 documented factors produce the +15 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +35Model and strategic partnersBaseline rule · 2015
The leaders described a long-standing strategic partnership and solidarity across regional security issues.
- -15Serious Syria-border disagreementBaseline rule · 2015
The United States publicly documented persistent gaps in cooperation to close transit routes on the Türkiye–Syria border.
- -20S-400 purchase ruptures F-35 cooperationActive event · 2019
The Russian S-400 acquisition was judged incompatible with the F-35, triggering Türkiye's removal from programme activity and a durable allied-security dispute.
- +15Strategic Mechanism restores structured cooperationActive event · 2023
The governments resumed a results-oriented agenda covering defence, Ukraine, NATO, regional security, trade, climate and energy while the S-400 dispute remained unresolved.
2 documented factors produce the +30 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- +10Strategic Mechanism restores structured cooperationActive event · 2023
The governments resumed a results-oriented agenda covering defence, Ukraine, NATO, regional security, trade, climate and energy while the S-400 dispute remained unresolved.
3 documented factors produce the -10 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Joint regional and counterterrorism actionBaseline rule · 2015
The leaders coordinated on ISIL, the Syrian political process, refugees and wider regional stability.
- +10Strategic Mechanism restores structured cooperationActive event · 2023
The governments resumed a results-oriented agenda covering defence, Ukraine, NATO, regional security, trade, climate and energy while the S-400 dispute remained unresolved.
- -30Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
3 documented factors produce the 0 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Disputes managed inside a durable allianceBaseline rule · 2015
Official meetings preserved structured cooperation and alliance solidarity despite serious policy differences.
- -20S-400 purchase ruptures F-35 cooperationActive event · 2019
The Russian S-400 acquisition was judged incompatible with the F-35, triggering Türkiye's removal from programme activity and a durable allied-security dispute.
- +5Strategic Mechanism restores structured cooperationActive event · 2023
The governments resumed a results-oriented agenda covering defence, Ukraine, NATO, regional security, trade, climate and energy while the S-400 dispute remained unresolved.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: No reviewed 2015 official record met the frozen national-scale exchange threshold.
+38 in 2015 → +26 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Türkiye → United States and United States → Türkiye remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
S-400 purchase ruptures F-35 cooperation
The Russian S-400 acquisition was judged incompatible with the F-35, triggering Türkiye's removal from programme activity and a durable allied-security dispute.
Strategic Mechanism restores structured cooperation
The governments resumed a results-oriented agenda covering defence, Ukraine, NATO, regional security, trade, climate and energy while the S-400 dispute remained unresolved.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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