India and Pakistan
The relationship between India and Pakistan encompasses territorial disputes, military security and a vital issue of shared water. Ceasefires and diplomatic mechanisms can contain crises without necessarily resolving their causes.
Analysis reviewed: 2026-10-06 · Indicators updated: 2026-10-07People
Mobility and pilgrimages are affected by political restrictions.
Bilateral indicators
Blank cells: data unavailable.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Goods trade | ||
| Goods: India to Pakistan | ||
| Goods: Pakistan to India | ||
| Services trade | 16.64 M USD | July 2024–June 2025 · SBP |
| Export share: India to Pakistan | ||
| Export share: Pakistan to India | ||
| Investment stock: India in Pakistan | ||
| Investment stock: Pakistan in India |
Definitions and sources
Trade adds both directions. Shares refer to the country’s total goods exports; investment is an accumulated stock, not an annual flow. Every figure retains the currency and period of its source. BEA positions are historical-cost estimates based on the immediate counterpart, not market values or investment by ultimate owner. ‘More than’ indicates a lower bound, not an exact amount. A recorded stock does not establish new activity or authorisation to operate under sanctions.
- Services trade
- July 2024–June 2025 · State Bank of Pakistan · State Bank of Pakistan (other direction) · Services reported by Pakistan with India: exports 7.559 M USD + imports 9.076 M USD, according to SBP, section B. Pakistan's fiscal year, not a calendar year or India's April–March fiscal year. Not added to goods, and zero values are not inferred from trade restrictions.
Country comparison
Period and source beside each figure · est. = estimate by the stated institution.
Year-on-year inflation: different periods or frequencies; the two figures are not directly comparable.
| Indicator | India | Pakistan |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 3.96 trillion USD2025 · WB | 407.31 billion USD2025 · WB |
| GDP per capita | 2,702.48 USD2025 · WB | 1,595.91 USD2025 · WB |
| GDP growth | 7.57 %2025 · WB | 3.7 %2025 · WB |
| Policy interest rate | 5.25 %2026-10-06 · RBI | 11.5 %2026-09-14 · SBP |
| Inflation · annual average | 2.4 %Annual average · 2025 · WB | 3.55 %Annual average · 2025 · WB |
| Inflation · latest year-on-year figure | 4.82 %provisionalprovisionalYear-on-year · Aug. 2026 · MoSPI | 10.3 %Year-on-year · Sept. 2026 · PBS |
| Unemployment | 4.22 %ILO est.2025 · WB | 5.42 %ILO est.2025 · WB |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | -7.4 %IMF est.2025 · IMF | -5.4 %IMF est.2025 · IMF |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 84.1 %IMF est.2025 · IMF | 72.8 %IMF est.2025 · IMF |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -0.42 %2025 · WB | -0.11 %2025 · WB |
| Population | 1,463,865,5252025 · WB | 255,219,5542025 · WB |
| Area | 3,287,260 km²2023 · BM / FAO | 796,100 km²2023 · BM / FAO |
| Military expenditure | ||
| Military expenditure (% of GDP) |
Definitions, dates and sources
Blank cells are not zero. Average annual inflation and the latest year-on-year figure appear in separate rows: they are not the same measure. Every annual indicator retains its reference year; when the years differ, the figures are identified as not directly comparable. When a figure is unavailable from the World Bank, an annual IMF estimate is used and identified as such. The latest year-on-year figure is the latest official release verified as of 7 October 2026. This includes advance releases marked as provisional. Mexico may have a fortnightly figure before the full month is published; it is not automatically compared with a monthly figure. The publication date is retained in each source’s details; it does not replace the observation period or the annual average. Policy rates carry their own dates and represent different instruments. Spain and France share the ECB rate. Balances are positive for surpluses and negative for deficits. The IMF may use fiscal years; unemployment retains each source’s definition (ILO estimates, IMF WEO or PCBS), as stated in the details. For Palestine, debt and the fiscal balance cover central government and retain the PCBS definition; they are not presented as consolidated general government. These are economic magnitudes, not measures of relationship quality.
Area retains each source’s territorial coverage; it does not determine sovereignty or effective control. Canada uses an archived national geographic reference. Military expenditure retains the 2024 SIPRI sample distributed by the World Bank: the amount and percentage of GDP use that same definition, which differs from NATO’s. It is not an approved budget or a 2026 figure. Information from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Military expenditure database · Terms of use0
Indicators reviewed: 2026-10-07. Each source retains its original access date; this review does not turn all the data into 2026 observations. Figures may be revised.
- Nominal GDP
- Current USDIndia: 2025 · World BankPakistan: 2025 · World Bank
- GDP per capita
- Current USD per personIndia: 2025 · World BankPakistan: 2025 · World Bank
- GDP growth
- Annual real change (%)India: 2025 · World BankPakistan: 2025 · World Bank
- Policy interest rate
- Central bank instrument (%)India: 2026-10-06 · RBI policy repo rate · Reserve Bank of India (RBI) · Access date for Current Rates; does not represent a new decision on 6 October. · Alternative official source; verified 2026-10-06Pakistan: 2026-09-14 · State Bank of Pakistan policy rate · State Bank of Pakistan
- Inflation · annual average
- Average annual change in headline CPI (%)India: 2025 · Average annual CPI change (%) · World BankPakistan: 2025 · Annual average change in the CPI (%) · World Bank
- Inflation · latest year-on-year figure
- Headline CPI relative to the same period of the previous year (%); monthly or fortnightly frequency statedIndia: 2026-08 · Headline CPI change relative to the same month of the previous year (%) · MoSPI / Press Information Bureau, Government of India · Published: 2026-09-14 · provisional · Provisional · Combined rural and urban headline CPI, 2024 base; provisional MoSPI figure. Not food or wholesale inflation. Provisional figure or official advance release; subject to revision.Pakistan: 2026-09 · Change in headline CPI from the same month of the previous year (%) · Pakistan Bureau of Statistics · Published: 2026-10-01 · National headline CPI published rounded to one decimal place; not the quarterly average, Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) or Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
- Unemployment
- % of the labour force; definition used by the stated institutionIndia: 2025 · World Bank · ILO est.Pakistan: 2025 · World Bank · ILO est.
- Budget balance
- General government (% of GDP)India: 2025 · IMF — World Economic Outlook · IMF est.Pakistan: 2025 · IMF — World Economic Outlook · IMF est.
- Gross public debt
- General government (% of GDP)India: 2025 · IMF — World Economic Outlook · IMF est.Pakistan: 2025 · IMF — World Economic Outlook · IMF est.
- Current account balance
- % of GDPIndia: 2025 · World BankPakistan: 2025 · World Bank
- Population
- PeopleIndia: 2025 · World BankPakistan: 2025 · World Bank
- Area
- Total area in km²; territorial coverage of the sourceIndia: 2023 · Total area including inland waters; territorial coverage of the source · World Bank · FAOPakistan: 2023 · Total area, including inland waters; source's territorial coverage · World Bank · FAO
- Military expenditure
- Current USD per year; SIPRI series
- Military expenditure (% of GDP)
- Percentage of GDP; SIPRI definition, not NATO’s definition
Other data specific to this relationship
Indus Waters Treaty
19 September 1960Historical framework
Signed by India and Pakistan with World Bank involvement. [4]
Award on the status of the treaty
31 August 2026PCA record
Date of the award, distinct from the Pakistani statement. [5]
What they buy and sell
Documented selection, not an exhaustive list. Cells without a figure do not mean zero value; some products are identified without a verified amount.
India to Pakistan
| Product or sector | Value / share |
|---|---|
Pakistan to India
| Product or sector | Value / share |
|---|---|
Connections between people
Reduced connectivity since 2019 affects social contact. That same year, a specific agreement was signed to facilitate pilgrims' visits to the Kartarpur shrine in Pakistan; Pakistan announced its renewal for five years in October 2024. That historical framework does not guarantee that the route operates today or replace verification of current travel conditions. [6] Press Information Bureau, Government of India Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan
Residents, study and travel
Blank cells: data unavailable. Each measure retains its definition and period.
Travel figures retain each source's coverage. Check the definitions and periods before comparing the two directions.
| Indicator | Value | Period / source |
|---|---|---|
| Residents from India living in Pakistan | ||
| Residents from Pakistan living in India | ||
| Study and training: India in PakistanUniversities and tertiary institutions; MEA count | 0 | 1 January 2025 · India MEA |
| Study and training: Pakistan in India | ||
| Academic stays: India in Pakistan | ||
| Academic stays: Pakistan in India | ||
| Travel: India to PakistanIndian nationals; international departures by destination | 15,284trips | 2025 · India tourism |
| Travel: Pakistan to IndiaTraveller nationality; foreign tourist arrivals in India | 13,445arrivals | 2025 · India tourism |
What each figure measures
Residents are counted by nationality and the coverage of the stated register, not as people born in the other country or as new arrivals in one year. PERE includes dual nationals and people born outside Spain. Study with OPT and stays carrying academic credit are different measures. Travel may include several visits by the same person; FRONTUR arrivals require an overnight stay, whereas the Canadian survey includes day visits. These figures are neither added together nor automatically compared across directions.
- Study and training: India in Pakistan
- Parliamentary annex from India's Ministry of External Affairs on Indian students abroad; only the university/tertiary column is used and school education is excluded. A ministerial count, not harmonised UOE enrolment or permits issued. The zero for Pakistan is explicitly published for this date; it does not demonstrate the absence of subsequent exchanges. 1 January 2025 · India MEA
- Travel: India to Pakistan
- Indian Nationals Departures (IND): departures by Indian nationals classified by destination by the Bureau of Immigration. Includes non-leisure purposes and may count people repeatedly. Not presented as an arrivals count reported by the receiving country. 2025 · India tourism
- Travel: Pakistan to India
- Bureau of Immigration Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTA): arrivals by foreign nationals, not all international arrivals including Indian nationals resident abroad. May include business, family, medical and other purposes; not unique people. 2025 · India tourism
Mobility data added or reviewed: 2026-10-07. Reference periods may be earlier.
Underlying ties
History, institutions and long-standing issues.
Partition, Kashmir and escalation
The partition of 1947 gave rise to two states and a prolonged conflict over Kashmir. [3]
Why the Indus is so important
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on 19 September 1960 by India and Pakistan, with World Bank involvement. It was designed to organise the use and development of shared water resources. Water connects security, agriculture, water supply and hydroelectric projects, so an infrastructure dispute can have considerable political importance. [4]
Trade and disrupted connections
India's 2024 annual report recalls that Pakistan downgraded diplomatic relations and suspended trade, connectivity and exchanges in August 2019. This is important background: political conflicts also affect transport and social contact. That historical document does not imply that all direct or indirect trade is zero in 2026, nor is a zero figure used as trade data. [6]
Containment and economic consequences
Water security has direct economic consequences, while military escalation can disrupt activity and increase uncertainty. To follow the relationship, announcements, limited incidents and sustained hostilities should be distinguished: each affects the prospects for dialogue and the people dependent on shared resources and services differently. [1] [3] [4]
Recent developments
Recent developments and latest available data · Reviewed: 2026-10-06
Evolution of the bilateral framework
CFR places the May 2025 escalation within that rivalry: attacks and military exchanges preceded a ceasefire that its August 2026 monitoring described as holding. Military containment and a territorial settlement are different processes. [3]
The dispute over the treaty
The suspension announced by India became a new focus of conflict. Pakistan maintains that the treaty remains in force and invokes its legal mechanisms. The Permanent Court of Arbitration record dates the award on the treaty's status and an order on provisional measures to 31 August 2026; the Pakistani ministry published its interpretation on 2 September. [2] [5]
The proceedings concerning hydroelectric projects and the territorial conflict are not the same dispute. An award addresses specific legal questions; it does not by itself eliminate political mistrust or the risk of military incidents. These mechanisms show how an attempt is made to handle a disagreement even when relations have deteriorated. [4] [5]
A naval incident and a protest
On 16 September 2026, India's public radio reported the summoning of Pakistan's chargé d'affaires over a collision in international waters. According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, the conduct of Pakistani units contravened an agreement on notification of military exercises and movements and caused no significant damage. This attribution is India's position, not an independent conclusion about responsibility. [1]
Milestones and consequences
- 1947
Partition
Origin of the contemporary territorial rivalry. [3]
- 1960-09-19
Indus Treaty
The treaty organises the use of shared water resources, essential for agriculture, water supply and electricity generation. [4]
- 2019-08
Downgrading of relations and connectivity
The Indian report describes Pakistani measures affecting trade and contacts. [6]
- 2019-10-24
Kartarpur agreement
A specific pilgrimage mechanism is established despite the deterioration of other contact channels. Press Information Bureau, Government of India
- 2024-10
Renewal of the pilgrimage agreement
Pakistan announces a five-year extension; the agreement's validity and daily operation are different matters. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan
- 2025-05
Escalation and ceasefire
The ceasefire contains the documented military escalation; it does not resolve the territorial conflict or all restrictions on contact. [3]
- 2026-08-31
Arbitral award
The PCA record publishes decisions concerning the treaty. [5]
- 2026-09-16
Naval incident
India lodges a diplomatic protest. [1]
Sources and data
Periods and scope of the figures
The PCA record was consulted through its indexed content; the full text of the award is neither reproduced nor interpreted. The legal date is distinguished from the political statement. The description of the collision is attributed to India.
- India lodges strong protest with Pakistan over unacceptable conduct of Pakistani naval units leading to naval collision in international waters | Akashvani News
Akashvani / News On AIR · News reporting or analysis · Document: 2026-09-16 · Accessed: 2026-10-06
- Transcript of the Press Briefing by the Spokesperson on Wednesday 02nd September 2026
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan · Institutional source · Document: 2026-09-02 · Accessed: 2026-10-06
- Conflict Between India and Pakistan | Global Conflict Tracker
Council on Foreign Relations · News reporting or analysis · Document: 2026-08-03 · Accessed: 2026-10-06
- Announcement of the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty
World Bank · Institutional source · Document: 1960-09-19 · Accessed: 2026-10-06
- Record of arbitration concerning the Indus Western Rivers
Permanent Court of Arbitration · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-06
- 2024 annual report: relations with Pakistan
Ministry of External Affairs of India · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-06
Additional sources on products and human connections
- Press Information Bureau, Government of India
2019-10-24 · Accessed: 2026-10-06.
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan
2024-10 · Accessed: 2026-10-06.