China → United States
This score represents China's relationship toward United States. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
5 documented factors produce the -100 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40U.S. regional military posture raises concernBaseline rule · 2015
China's defence white paper identified the U.S. rebalance, military presence and alliances as major regional security concerns.
- +15Military safety and crisis guardrailsBaseline rule · 2015
The leaders completed operational safety annexes and strengthened crisis communications.
- -40U.S. strategy prioritises ChinaActive event · 2021
U.S. defence strategy deepens Beijing's perception of military pressure and strategic containment.
- -35Advanced semiconductor controlsActive event · 2022
U.S. national-security controls constrain Chinese technology access and industrial capacity.
- -8Technology controls broadenActive event · 2024
Additional semiconductor manufacturing controls deepen the economic-security dispute.
The displayed value is limited to the model’s −100 to +100 component range.
5 documented factors produce the +17 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +20State visit produces bilateral commitmentsBaseline rule · 2015
The presidents documented cooperation across security, development, health, climate and bilateral relations.
- +10Standing strategic and economic dialoguesBaseline rule · 2015
Official records document recurring senior channels with concrete outcomes during 2015.
- -15Cyber and maritime friction remainsBaseline rule · 2015
The state-visit record documents material unresolved disputes despite extensive dialogue.
- -12Section 301 tariffs imposedActive event · 2018
U.S. tariffs turn economic friction into a durable coercive instrument from China's direction.
- +14High-level dialogue resumesActive event · 2023
Restored leader and working-level channels partly repair diplomacy without removing structural competition.
7 documented factors produce the -63 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Institutional economic cooperationBaseline rule · 2015
The JCCT and Strategic and Economic Dialogue produced documented trade and investment outcomes.
- -15Material trade-policy disputesBaseline rule · 2015
Official compliance records identify multiple consequential disputes across market access, investment and technology policy.
- +50Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -32Advanced semiconductor controlsActive event · 2022
U.S. national-security controls constrain Chinese technology access and industrial capacity.
- -52Section 301 tariffs imposedActive event · 2018
U.S. tariffs turn economic friction into a durable coercive instrument from China's direction.
- -14Technology controls broadenActive event · 2024
Additional semiconductor manufacturing controls deepen the economic-security dispute.
- -15Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
3 documented factors produce the -60 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Broad global-issues cooperationBaseline rule · 2015
Joint commitments covered climate, development, peacekeeping, nuclear security, health and humanitarian response.
- -30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- -40U.S. strategy prioritises ChinaActive event · 2021
U.S. defence strategy deepens Beijing's perception of military pressure and strategic containment.
5 documented factors produce the -85 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -40U.S. maritime presence viewed as coercive pressureBaseline rule · 2015
China's official strategy identified external surveillance and involvement in maritime disputes as a sustained challenge to its interests.
- -20Cyber conduct remains disputedBaseline rule · 2015
The leaders addressed cyber-enabled theft and established an escalation mechanism.
- +15Cyber and military escalation guardrailsBaseline rule · 2015
The parties adopted hotlines, expert dialogue and operational safety measures to manage escalation risks.
- -25U.S. strategy prioritises ChinaActive event · 2021
U.S. defence strategy deepens Beijing's perception of military pressure and strategic containment.
- -15Advanced semiconductor controlsActive event · 2022
U.S. national-security controls constrain Chinese technology access and industrial capacity.
1 documented factor produce the +20 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +20National-scale education and tourism initiativesBaseline rule · 2015
The Tourism Year and One Million Strong initiatives sought to expand travel and education links.
-7 in 2015 → -61 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
4 points
China → United States and United States → China remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
U.S. strategy prioritises China
U.S. defence strategy deepens Beijing's perception of military pressure and strategic containment.
Advanced semiconductor controls
U.S. national-security controls constrain Chinese technology access and industrial capacity.
Section 301 tariffs imposed
U.S. tariffs turn economic friction into a durable coercive instrument from China's direction.
Technology controls broaden
Additional semiconductor manufacturing controls deepen the economic-security dispute.
High-level dialogue resumes
Restored leader and working-level channels partly repair diplomacy without removing structural competition.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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