United States → China
This score represents United States's relationship toward China. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
5 documented factors produce the -100 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Military modernization challenges U.S. advantagesBaseline rule · 2015
The Defense Department assessed that Chinese modernization and regional contingencies could reduce core U.S. military advantages.
- +15Air-safety and crisis-communication measuresBaseline rule · 2015
The state visit completed new confidence-building annexes for air-to-air safety and crisis communications.
- -35China becomes the pacing security challengeActive event · 2021
U.S. defence strategy prioritises China as the principal long-term military and strategic challenge.
- -32Advanced semiconductor controlsActive event · 2022
National-security export controls restrict advanced computing and semiconductor capabilities.
- -8Technology controls broadenActive event · 2024
Additional semiconductor manufacturing controls deepen the economic-security dispute.
5 documented factors produce the +21 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Xi state visit produces bilateral commitmentsBaseline rule · 2015
The presidents documented cooperation across security, development, health, climate and bilateral relations.
- +10Standing economic and strategic dialoguesBaseline rule · 2015
Official records document recurring senior economic and strategic channels with concrete 2015 outcomes.
- -15Serious cyber-security friction remainsBaseline rule · 2015
Leader-level commitments addressed unresolved cyber theft and malicious cyber activity, indicating material political friction despite dialogue.
- -10Section 301 tariffs imposedActive event · 2018
Additional U.S. tariffs turn economic friction into a durable coercive instrument.
- +16High-level dialogue resumesActive event · 2023
Restored leader and working-level channels partly repair diplomacy without removing structural competition.
7 documented factors produce the -53 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Institutional economic cooperationBaseline rule · 2015
The JCCT and Strategic and Economic Dialogue produced documented trade and investment outcomes.
- -15Material WTO compliance disputesBaseline rule · 2015
USTR identified persistent disputes involving intellectual property, state-owned enterprises, services, agriculture and transparency.
- +50Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -28Advanced semiconductor controlsActive event · 2022
National-security export controls restrict advanced computing and semiconductor capabilities.
- -48Section 301 tariffs imposedActive event · 2018
Additional U.S. tariffs turn economic friction into a durable coercive instrument.
- -12Technology controls broadenActive event · 2024
Additional semiconductor manufacturing controls deepen the economic-security dispute.
- -15Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
3 documented factors produce the -55 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Broad global-issues cooperationBaseline rule · 2015
Joint commitments covered climate, development, peacekeeping, nuclear security, public health and humanitarian response.
- -30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- -35China becomes the pacing security challengeActive event · 2021
U.S. defence strategy prioritises China as the principal long-term military and strategic challenge.
5 documented factors produce the -82 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Coercive maritime behaviorBaseline rule · 2015
The Defense Department documented low-intensity coercion and growing tensions in East and South China Sea disputes.
- -20Cyber-enabled theft disputeBaseline rule · 2015
The presidents addressed cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property and established an escalation mechanism.
- +15Cyber and military escalation guardrailsBaseline rule · 2015
The parties adopted hotlines, expert dialogue and operational safety measures to manage escalation risks.
- -25China becomes the pacing security challengeActive event · 2021
U.S. defence strategy prioritises China as the principal long-term military and strategic challenge.
- -12Advanced semiconductor controlsActive event · 2022
National-security export controls restrict advanced computing and semiconductor capabilities.
1 documented factor produce the +20 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +20National-scale education and tourism initiativesBaseline rule · 2015
The Tourism Year and One Million Strong initiatives sought to expand travel and Mandarin education.
-7 in 2015 → -57 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
4 points
United States → China and China → United States remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
China becomes the pacing security challenge
U.S. defence strategy prioritises China as the principal long-term military and strategic challenge.
Advanced semiconductor controls
National-security export controls restrict advanced computing and semiconductor capabilities.
Section 301 tariffs imposed
Additional U.S. tariffs turn economic friction into a durable coercive instrument.
Technology controls broaden
Additional semiconductor manufacturing controls deepen the economic-security dispute.
High-level dialogue resumes
Restored leader and working-level channels partly repair diplomacy without removing structural competition.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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