China and Kenya
Railways, public financing and trade make China an important partner for Kenya. Railway corridor expansion coexists with the need to address debt and diversify exports.
Analysis reviewed: 2026-10-07 · Indicators updated: 2026-10-07A bilateral relationship within China–Africa cooperation
The April 2025 joint declaration placed the relationship within the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation and the Belt and Road framework.
Mombasa, Naivasha and the extension toward Malaba
The standard-gauge railway connects Mombasa port with Nairobi and Naivasha.
Bilateral indicators
Blank cells: data unavailable.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Goods trade | 10,291.58 M USD | 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN |
| Goods: China to Kenya | 10,066.04 M USD | 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN |
| Goods: Kenya to China | 225.54 M USD | 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN |
| Services trade | ||
| Export share: China to Kenya | 0.27 % | 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN |
| Export share: Kenya to China | ||
| Investment stock: China in Kenya | ||
| Investment stock: Kenya in China |
Definitions and sources
Trade adds both directions. Shares refer to the country’s total goods exports; investment is an accumulated stock, not an annual flow. Every figure retains the currency and period of its source. BEA positions are historical-cost estimates based on the immediate counterpart, not market values or investment by ultimate owner. ‘More than’ indicates a lower bound, not an exact amount. A recorded stock does not establish new activity or authorisation to operate under sanctions.
- Goods trade
- 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN · Goods; full year; CHN reporter. Exports normally FOB and imports CIF according to the reporter's coverage. No addition of mirror reports.
- Goods: China to Kenya
- 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN · Goods; full year; CHN reporter. Exports normally FOB and imports CIF according to the reporter's coverage. No addition of mirror reports.
- Goods: Kenya to China
- 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN · Goods; full year; CHN reporter. Exports normally FOB and imports CIF according to the reporter's coverage. No addition of mirror reports.
- Export share: China to Kenya
- 2025 · UN Comtrade / CHN · Goods share: CHN exports to the partner / the same reporter's exports to the world, same year.
Country comparison
Period and source beside each figure · est. = estimate by the stated institution.
Some annual indicators refer to different years. Check the period beside each value before comparing them.
| Indicator | China | Kenya |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 19.5 trillion USD2025 · WB | 135.94 billion USD2025 · WB |
| GDP per capita | 13,861.97 USD2025 · WB | 2,362.86 USD2025 · WB |
| GDP growth | 4.96 %2025 · WB | 4.63 %2025 · WB |
| Policy interest rate | 1.4 %2026-09-24 · PBoC | |
| Inflation · annual average | 0.06 %Annual average · 2025 · WB | 4.07 %Annual average · 2025 · WB |
| Inflation · latest year-on-year figure | 0.8 %Year-on-year · Aug. 2026 · NBS China | |
| Unemployment | 4.62 %ILO est.2025 · WB | 5.45 %ILO est.2025 · WB |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | -7.9 %IMF est.2025 · IMF | -6.4 %IMF est.2025 · IMF |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 99.2 %IMF est.2025 · IMF | 69.3 %IMF est.2025 · IMF |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 3.77 %2025 · WB | -1.29 %2024 · WB |
| Population | 1,406,585,0002025 · WB | 57,532,4932025 · WB |
| Area | 9,562,910 km²2023 · BM / FAO | 591,969 km²2023 · WB |
| Military expenditure | ||
| Military expenditure (% of GDP) |
Definitions, dates and sources
Blank cells are not zero. Average annual inflation and the latest year-on-year figure appear in separate rows: they are not the same measure. Every annual indicator retains its reference year; when the years differ, the figures are identified as not directly comparable. When a figure is unavailable from the World Bank, an annual IMF estimate is used and identified as such. The latest year-on-year figure is the latest official release verified as of 7 October 2026. This includes advance releases marked as provisional. Mexico may have a fortnightly figure before the full month is published; it is not automatically compared with a monthly figure. The publication date is retained in each source’s details; it does not replace the observation period or the annual average. Policy rates carry their own dates and represent different instruments. Spain and France share the ECB rate. Balances are positive for surpluses and negative for deficits. The IMF may use fiscal years; unemployment retains each source’s definition (ILO estimates, IMF WEO or PCBS), as stated in the details. For Palestine, debt and the fiscal balance cover central government and retain the PCBS definition; they are not presented as consolidated general government. These are economic magnitudes, not measures of relationship quality.
Area retains each source’s territorial coverage; it does not determine sovereignty or effective control. Canada uses an archived national geographic reference. Military expenditure retains the 2024 SIPRI sample distributed by the World Bank: the amount and percentage of GDP use that same definition, which differs from NATO’s. It is not an approved budget or a 2026 figure. Information from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Military expenditure database · Terms of use0
Indicators reviewed: 2026-10-07. Each source retains its original access date; this review does not turn all the data into 2026 observations. Figures may be revised.
- Nominal GDP
- Current USDChina: 2025 · World BankKenya: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- GDP per capita
- Current USD per personChina: 2025 · World BankKenya: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- GDP growth
- Annual real change (%)China: 2025 · World BankKenya: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- Policy interest rate
- Central bank instrument (%)China: 2026-09-24 · PBoC: 7-day reverse repo · People’s Bank of China · Published: 2026-09-24 · Rate of the official operation consulted, not the mortgage LPR or the PSL lending rate. Subsequent operations with zero volume are not converted into a 0% interest rate.
- Inflation · annual average
- Average annual change in headline CPI (%)China: 2025 · Average annual CPI change (%) · World BankKenya: 2025 · Annual average CPI change (%) · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- Inflation · latest year-on-year figure
- Headline CPI relative to the same period of the previous year (%); monthly or fortnightly frequency statedChina: 2026-08 · Headline CPI change relative to the same month of the previous year (%) · National Bureau of Statistics of China · Published: 2026-09-09 · National headline year-on-year CPI, not monthly inflation or an annual average.
- Unemployment
- % of the labour force; definition used by the stated institutionChina: 2025 · World Bank · ILO est.Kenya: 2025 · ILO modelled estimate; percentage of the labour force · World Bank · ILO est. · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- Budget balance
- General government (% of GDP)China: 2025 · IMF — World Economic Outlook · IMF est.Kenya: 2025 · IMF · IMF est. · WEO general-government estimate, % of GDP. Not an observed balance for the current month.
- Gross public debt
- General government (% of GDP)China: 2025 · IMF — World Economic Outlook · IMF est.Kenya: 2025 · IMF · IMF est. · WEO general-government estimate, % of GDP. Not an observed balance for the current month.
- Current account balance
- % of GDPChina: 2025 · World BankKenya: 2024 · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- Population
- PeopleChina: 2025 · World BankKenya: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- Area
- Total area in km²; territorial coverage of the sourceChina: 2023 · Total area including inland waters; territorial coverage of the source · World Bank · FAOKenya: 2023 · World Bank · Official World Bank series. Observation year, not download date.
- Military expenditure
- Current USD per year; SIPRI series
- Military expenditure (% of GDP)
- Percentage of GDP; SIPRI definition, not NATO’s definition
Other data specific to this relationship
What they buy and sell
Documented selection, not an exhaustive list. Cells without a figure do not mean zero value; some products are identified without a verified amount.
China to Kenya
Kenya to China
How trade has changed
Billions of current USD · full calendar years
View chart figures
| Period | Total | China to Kenya | Kenya to China |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6,822.5 | 6,596.7 | 225.8 |
| 2022 | 8,518.4 | 8,249.1 | 269.3 |
| 2023 | 8,107 | 7,879.4 | 227.7 |
| 2024 | 8,819.9 | 8,582.4 | 237.5 |
| 2025 | 10,291.6 | 10,066 | 225.5 |
Connections between people
Education, technical training and communities working on the projects are part of the relationship. Its size is not estimated from the amount of loans or contracts. [4]
Residents, study and travel
Blank cells: data unavailable. Each measure retains its definition and period.
| Indicator | Value | Period / source |
|---|---|---|
| Residents from China living in Kenya | ||
| Residents from Kenya living in China | ||
| Study and training: China in Kenya | ||
| Study and training: Kenya in China | ||
| Academic stays: China in Kenya | ||
| Academic stays: Kenya in China | ||
| Travel: China to Kenya | ||
| Travel: Kenya to China |
What each figure measures
Residents are counted by nationality and the coverage of the stated register, not as people born in the other country or as new arrivals in one year. PERE includes dual nationals and people born outside Spain. Study with OPT and stays carrying academic credit are different measures. Travel may include several visits by the same person; FRONTUR arrivals require an overnight stay, whereas the Canadian survey includes day visits. These figures are neither added together nor automatically compared across directions.
Mobility data added or reviewed: 2026-10-07. Reference periods may be earlier.
Underlying ties
History, institutions and long-standing issues.
A bilateral relationship within China–Africa cooperation
The April 2025 joint declaration placed the relationship within the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation and the Belt and Road framework. Both governments proposed contacts between administrations, parliaments and parties, alongside economic, technical and educational cooperation. Kenya reaffirmed its one-China policy. The Chinese agenda connects with Kenyan development programs, but a favorable declaration does not in itself describe the costs and benefits of each construction project. Understanding the relationship requires observing contracted infrastructure, Kenyan products' access to the Chinese market and the financial obligations accompanying projects. [1] [2]
Mombasa, Naivasha and the extension toward Malaba
The standard-gauge railway connects Mombasa port with Nairobi and Naivasha. The project is conceived as a corridor toward inland East Africa, not solely as transport between two cities. Kenya Railways announced the start of Naivasha–Kisumu–Malaba construction in March 2026, with the presidents of Kenya and Uganda participating in the launch ceremony. Extension toward the border can improve regional connections, but an announcement of works does not equal a completed line. Its effect will also depend on terminals, links to other networks, transport prices and customs services. [3] [1]
Railway loans and state obligations
Kenya's official external debt register identifies Export-Import Bank of China loans linked to the Mombasa–Nairobi railway and their maturities. This is sovereign financing requiring principal and interest payments, not direct investment by a foreign company. The register separates the contracted amount from outstanding debt and uses columns and currencies that must be read before comparing amounts. That distinction matters for public debate: a project's value, the loan financing it and Kenya's total debt stock are different quantities. Loans are not placed in the accumulated bilateral investment cell. [4]
The scale of the two economies
China's reference nominal GDP is 19,498 billion USD in 2025, compared with 135.9 in 2025 for Kenya. The reference populations are 1406.59 million (2025) and 57.53 million (2025), respectively. In the same year, China's nominal GDP was 143.43 times Kenya's. The figures contextualize market size; they do not in themselves describe well-being, individual wealth or political influence. IMF estimates or demographic extrapolations retain their markings in the table. A ratio is not calculated when the periods do not match. [6] [7] [8] [9]
Recent developments
Recent developments and latest available data · Reviewed: 2026-10-07
The economic agenda after the 2025 visit
The April 2025 state visit addressed trade, investment, technical cooperation and connectivity. The relationship also incorporates education, training and project personnel security. In March 2026 the railway extension moved into the construction launch phase according to Kenya Railways. For businesses and citizens, the relevant matters are implementation, capacity to transport goods, market access and financing costs, more than the number of agreements signed. Trade tables show shipments in both directions; a goods imbalance is not automatically interpreted as debt or absence of cooperation. [1] [3] [2]
Observed economic exchange
In 2025, recorded goods trade between China and Kenya totaled 10,291.6 million USD. China's shipments to Kenya were 10,066 million USD; those in the reverse direction were 225.5 million USD. China's shipments to the partner represented 0.27 % of its goods exports to the world, using the same year and reporting country. A single customs declaration is used for both directions. This annual flow does not include all services activity or subsidiaries' local sales and is not added to accumulated investment capital. [5]
Milestones and consequences
Sources and data
Periods and scope of the figures
Each figure retains its period, unit, definition and source. Announcements, contracts and results are not interchangeable. Empty cells do not mean zero. Customs data for 2025 are not presented as activity observed during later crises.
- China–Kenya declaration of April 2025
China MFA · Institutional source · Document: 2025-04-24 · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- Meeting between Li Qiang and William Ruto
China MFA · Institutional source · Document: 2025-04-29 · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- Start of railway construction toward Malaba
Kenya Railways · Institutional source · Document: 2026-03-23 · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- External debt register as of June 2025
Kenya Treasury · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- Annual TOTAL X/M; 2025; reporter 156; partners 0,554,702,458,764,404
UN Comtrade / CHN · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- Official statistics
World Bank · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-09-17
- NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; ISO and reference year; no military dataset expansion
World Bank · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- Official statistics
World Bank · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-06
- SP.POP.TOTL; ISO and reference year; no military dataset expansion
World Bank · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- HS2 84; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods
UN Comtrade / CHN · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- HS2 85; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods
UN Comtrade / CHN · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- HS2 27; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods
UN Comtrade / CHN · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- HS2 09; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods
UN Comtrade / CHN · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
Additional sources on products and human connections
- UN Comtrade / CHN
2026-10-07 · Accessed: 2026-10-07 · HS2 84; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods.
- UN Comtrade / CHN
2026-10-07 · Accessed: 2026-10-07 · HS2 85; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods.
- UN Comtrade / CHN
2026-10-07 · Accessed: 2026-10-07 · HS2 27; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods.
- UN Comtrade / CHN
2026-10-07 · Accessed: 2026-10-07 · HS2 09; 2025; reporter 156; partners 554,702,458,764,404; X/M; annual goods.