Poland and Belarus
Poland and Belarus maintain border relations shaped by security, migration and hybrid threat allegations. Polish border strip access restrictions accompany barriers and surveillance infrastructure.
Analysis reviewed: 2026-10-08 · Indicators updated: 2026-10-08Bilateral context
Poland introduced border access restrictions on 13 June 2024 and extended them for ninety-day periods.
What merchandise trade shows
In 2025, goods trade between Poland and Belarus totalled 1,595.2 million current USD.
Documented trade sectors
Within the selected chapters, machinery and mechanical appliances stands out in shipments from Poland to Belarus, at 196.1 million USD in 2025.
Bilateral indicators
Blank cells: data unavailable.
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Goods trade | 1,595.18 M USD | 2025 · Comtrade |
| Goods: Poland to Belarus | 1,408.87 M USD | 2025 · Comtrade |
| Goods: Belarus to Poland | 186.31 M USD | 2025 · Comtrade |
| Services trade | ||
| Export share: Poland to Belarus | 0.34 % | 2025 · Comtrade |
| Export share: Belarus to Poland | ||
| Investment stock: Poland in Belarus | ||
| Investment stock: Belarus in Poland |
Definitions and sources
Trade adds both directions. Shares refer to the country’s total goods exports; investment is an accumulated stock, not an annual flow. Every figure retains the currency and period of its source. BEA positions are historical-cost estimates based on the immediate counterpart, not market values or investment by ultimate owner. ‘More than’ indicates a lower bound, not an exact amount. A recorded stock does not establish new activity or authorisation to operate under sanctions.
- Goods trade
- 2025 · UN Comtrade · Goods; full calendar year; reporter POL. Exports normally FOB and imports CIF; no addition of mirror declarations. Both directions are identified from the same customs authority.
- Goods: Poland to Belarus
- 2025 · UN Comtrade · Goods; full calendar year; reporter POL. Exports normally FOB and imports CIF; no addition of mirror declarations. Both directions are identified from the same customs authority.
- Goods: Belarus to Poland
- 2025 · UN Comtrade · Goods; full calendar year; reporter POL. Exports normally FOB and imports CIF; no addition of mirror declarations. Both directions are identified from the same customs authority.
- Export share: Poland to Belarus
- 2025 · UN Comtrade · Exports to the partner / worldwide exports by the same reporter; same year and coverage.
Country comparison
Period and source beside each figure · est. = estimate by the stated institution.
| Indicator | Poland | Belarus |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 1.04 trillion USD2025 · World Bank | 93.4 billion USD2025 · World Bank |
| GDP per capita | 28,419.58 USD2025 · World Bank | 10,279.25 USD2025 · World Bank |
| GDP growth | 3.57 %2025 · World Bank | 1.3 %2025 · World Bank |
| Policy interest rate | ||
| Inflation · annual average | 3.81 %Annual average · 2025 · World Bank | 6.6 %Annual average · 2025 · World Bank |
| Inflation · latest year-on-year figure | ||
| Unemployment | 2.98 %ILO est.2025 · World Bank | 3.38 %ILO est.2025 · World Bank |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | -7 %IMF est.2025 · IMF | 0.2 %IMF est.2025 · IMF |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 58.8 %IMF est.2025 · IMF | 33.1 %IMF est.2025 · IMF |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -0.87 %2025 · World Bank | -1.94 %2025 · World Bank |
| Population | 36,435,8612025 · World Bank | 9,085,9912025 · World Bank |
| Area | 313,930 km²2023 · World Bank | 207,629 km²2023 · World Bank |
| Military expenditure | ||
| Military expenditure (% of GDP) |
Definitions, dates and sources
Blank cells are not zero. Average annual inflation and the latest year-on-year figure appear in separate rows: they are not the same measure. Every annual indicator retains its reference year; when the years differ, the figures are identified as not directly comparable. When a figure is unavailable from the World Bank, an annual IMF estimate is used and identified as such. The latest year-on-year figure is the latest official release verified as of 7 October 2026. This includes advance releases marked as provisional. Mexico may have a fortnightly figure before the full month is published; it is not automatically compared with a monthly figure. The publication date is retained in each source’s details; it does not replace the observation period or the annual average. Policy rates carry their own dates and represent different instruments. Spain and France share the ECB rate. Balances are positive for surpluses and negative for deficits. The IMF may use fiscal years; unemployment retains each source’s definition (ILO estimates, IMF WEO or PCBS), as stated in the details. For Palestine, debt and the fiscal balance cover central government and retain the PCBS definition; they are not presented as consolidated general government. These are economic magnitudes, not measures of relationship quality.
Area retains each source’s territorial coverage; it does not determine sovereignty or effective control. Canada uses an archived national geographic reference. Military expenditure retains the 2024 SIPRI sample distributed by the World Bank: the amount and percentage of GDP use that same definition, which differs from NATO’s. It is not an approved budget or a 2026 figure. Information from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Military expenditure database · Terms of use0
Indicators reviewed: 2026-10-07. Each source retains its original access date; this review does not turn all the data into 2026 observations. Figures may be revised.
- Nominal GDP
- Current USDPoland: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- GDP per capita
- Current USD per personPoland: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- GDP growth
- Annual real change (%)Poland: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- Policy interest rate
- Central bank instrument (%)
- Inflation · annual average
- Average annual change in headline CPI (%)Poland: 2025 · Annual average change in CPI (%) · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2025 · Annual average change in CPI (%) · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- Inflation · latest year-on-year figure
- Headline CPI relative to the same period of the previous year (%); monthly or fortnightly frequency stated
- Unemployment
- % of the labour force; definition used by the stated institutionPoland: 2025 · ILO modelled estimate, percentage of the labour force · World Bank · ILO est. · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2025 · ILO modelled estimate, percentage of the labour force · World Bank · ILO est. · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- Budget balance
- General government (% of GDP)Poland: 2025 · IMF · IMF est. · IMF WEO general-government estimate. Retains the source’s fiscal year when it differs from the calendar year.Belarus: 2025 · IMF · IMF est. · IMF WEO general-government estimate. Retains the source’s fiscal year when it differs from the calendar year.
- Gross public debt
- General government (% of GDP)Poland: 2025 · IMF · IMF est. · IMF WEO general-government estimate. Retains the source’s fiscal year when it differs from the calendar year.Belarus: 2025 · IMF · IMF est. · IMF WEO general-government estimate. Retains the source’s fiscal year when it differs from the calendar year.
- Current account balance
- % of GDPPoland: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- Population
- PeoplePoland: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date. Extrapolated assuming the same growth rate as the previous 6 months.Belarus: 2025 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date. Extrapolated assuming the same growth rate as the one between 2024 average population and 2025 January 1st population of National Statistical Committee website.
- Area
- Total area in km²; territorial coverage of the sourcePoland: 2023 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.Belarus: 2023 · World Bank · Official World Bank series; observation period, not download date.
- Military expenditure
- Current USD per year; SIPRI series
- Military expenditure (% of GDP)
- Percentage of GDP; SIPRI definition, not NATO’s definition
Other data specific to this relationship
What they buy and sell
Documented selection, not an exhaustive list. Cells without a figure do not mean zero value; some products are identified without a verified amount.
Poland to Belarus
| Product or sector | Value / share |
|---|---|
| Machinery and mechanical appliances | 196.1 M USD2025 · Source |
| Vehicles and components | 166.1 M USD2025 · Source |
| Pharmaceutical products | 62.2 M USD2025 · Source |
| Electrical and electronic equipment | 43.7 M USD2025 · Source |
| Meat and edible offal | 1.8 M USD2025 · Source |
| Mineral fuels and oils | 0.0976 M USD2025 · Source |
| Dairy products, eggs and honey | 0.000041 M USD2025 · Source |
Belarus to Poland
| Product or sector | Value / share |
|---|---|
| Vehicles and components | 3.2 M USD2025 · Source |
| Machinery and mechanical appliances | 1.7 M USD2025 · Source |
| Electrical and electronic equipment | 0.944 M USD2025 · Source |
| Pharmaceutical products | 0.164 M USD2025 · Source |
| Dairy products, eggs and honey | 0.00007 M USD2025 · Source |
How trade has changed
Billions of current USD · full calendar years
View chart figures
| Period | Total | Poland to Belarus | Belarus to Poland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3,629.8 | 1,946.2 | 1,683.7 |
| 2022 | 3,020.5 | 1,899.2 | 1,121.3 |
| 2023 | 3,431.7 | 2,939.1 | 492.6 |
| 2024 | 2,868.8 | 2,358.3 | 510.6 |
| 2025 | 1,595.2 | 1,408.9 | 186.3 |
Connections between people
The ministry cites investment in barriers, observation and drone detection and attributes migrant instrumentalisation to Minsk and Moscow. [1]
Residents, study and travel
Blank cells: data unavailable. Each measure retains its definition and period.
| Indicator | Value | Period / source |
|---|---|---|
| Residents from Poland living in Belarus | ||
| Residents from Belarus living in Poland | ||
| Study and training: Poland in Belarus | ||
| Study and training: Belarus in Poland | ||
| Academic stays: Poland in Belarus | ||
| Academic stays: Belarus in Poland | ||
| Travel: Poland to Belarus | ||
| Travel: Belarus to Poland |
What each figure measures
Residents are counted by nationality and the coverage of the stated register, not as people born in the other country or as new arrivals in one year. PERE includes dual nationals and people born outside Spain. Study with OPT and stays carrying academic credit are different measures. Travel may include several visits by the same person; FRONTUR arrivals require an overnight stay, whereas the Canadian survey includes day visits. These figures are neither added together nor automatically compared across directions.
Mobility data added or reviewed: 2026-10-07. Reference periods may be earlier.
Underlying ties
History, institutions and long-standing issues.
The scale of both economies
Nominal GDP for Poland is 1,035.5 billion USD (2025), compared with 93.4 for Belarus (2025). The reference populations are 36.44 and 9.09 million, respectively. In the same year, the economy of Poland was 11.09 times that of Belarus in nominal GDP. The comparison provides context on market size, but does not, on its own, measure influence, well-being or diplomatic closeness. Estimates and their sources retain their labels in the tables. [5] [6]
Recent developments
Recent developments and latest available data · Review: 2026-10-08
Bilateral context
Poland introduced border access restrictions on 13 June 2024 and extended them for ninety-day periods. The communication of 31 August 2026 extended the zone from 1 September to 29 November, an update after June’s extension. [1]
Cooperation and bilateral issues
The described perimeter covers over seventy-eight kilometres, mainly a two-hundred-metre strip with larger extensions in nature reserves. The ministry cites investment in barriers, observation and drone detection and attributes migrant instrumentalisation to Minsk and Moscow. Counts are detected attempts, not unique people. Observed reduction is not converted into proof of disappearing risks, and restrictions belong to the Polish side, not a reciprocal decision. [1]
What merchandise trade shows
In 2025, merchandise trade between the two countries (Poland and Belarus) totalled 1,595.2 million current USD. Shipments from the first to the second were 1,408.9 million; those in the opposite direction, 186.3 million. The difference between the two flows was 1,222.6 million, in favour of Poland. This is a goods balance, not the total balance of the economic relationship: it excludes services, income and transfers. Both directions come from a single customs reporter to avoid adding mirror records. [2]
The partner's share of exports
Sales from Poland to the partner represented 0.34% of its worldwide goods exports in 2025. The share compares the same reporter, year and coverage. It measures export concentration, not the percentage of GDP dependent on this relationship. A partner may be important in a specific sector even if its share of total goods trade is small. [2]
Five years of trade trends
The consistent series shows 3,629.8 million USD in 2021 and 1,595.2 million in 2025. The change between the two endpoints was -56.1 % in current dollars. The highest annual value in the period was recorded in 2021, at 3,629.8 million. The chart allows the two directions to be compared to see whether they moved together or differently. The change combines quantities, prices and exchange rates; it is not automatically attributed to a treaty, a visit or a political decision. The same reporter is retained and missing years are not interpolated. [3]
Documented trade sectors
Within the selected chapters, machinery and mechanical appliances stands out in shipments from Poland to Belarus, at 196.1 million USD in 2025. Within the selected chapters, vehicles and components stands out in shipments from Belarus to Poland, at 3.2 million USD in 2025. The table compares eight selected chapters with the same coverage as the trade total. It is not a complete list or proof that the first item in this selection is the leading product across the entire relationship. A chapter groups numerous goods: machinery and components, for example, do not describe a single business transaction. [4]
Sources and data
Periods and scope of the figures
Institutional sources and periods accompany each figure. Annual trade, investment positions, residents and visits are distinct measures. Empty cells do not mean zero. Statements of intent are not presented as project implementation or treaties in force.
- Bilateral relations — POL-BLR
www.gov.pl · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-08
- Bounded matrix; reporter, partner, year, chapter and direction identified in each record
UN Comtrade · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-08
- Trade series 2021–2025
UN Comtrade · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-08
- Bounded matrix; reporter, partner, year, chapter and direction identified in each record
UN Comtrade · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-08
- NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; country ISO and year preserved; no military data; exact requested country subset independently re-fetched and values compared
World Bank · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
- SP.POP.TOTL; country ISO and year preserved; no military data; exact requested country subset independently re-fetched and values compared
World Bank · Institutional source · Accessed: 2026-10-07
Additional sources on products and human connections
- UN Comtrade
2026-10-08 · Accessed: 2026-10-08 · Bounded matrix; reporter, partner, year, chapter and direction identified in each record.