Afghanistan → Pakistan
This score represents Afghanistan's relationship toward Pakistan. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
1 documented factor produce the -70 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -70Direct Pakistan-Afghanistan border hostilitiesActive event · 2025
Official statements document direct attacks and responses by Pakistani and Afghan forces in October 2025; a May 2026 statement records continued cross-border attacks despite a temporary pause.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not activate an additional frozen security rule for the 2015 baseline.
2 documented factors produce the -5 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Longstanding Pakistan-Afghanistan diplomatic engagementBaseline rule · 2015
Pakistan and Afghanistan maintained embassies, consulates and recurring high-level engagement before and during the baseline period despite serious bilateral frictions.
- -15Direct Pakistan-Afghanistan border hostilitiesActive event · 2025
Official statements document direct attacks and responses by Pakistani and Afghan forces in October 2025; a May 2026 statement records continued cross-border attacks despite a temporary pause.
1 documented factor produce the +15 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Shared Economic Cooperation Organization frameworkBaseline rule · 2015
Pakistan and the counterpart participated in ECO's standing regional framework for trade, connectivity and economic development in 2015.
2 documented factors produce the +25 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Shared SAARC regional frameworkBaseline rule · 2015
Pakistan and the counterpart participated in SAARC's standing South Asian framework for regional consultation and cooperation in 2015.
- +15United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
1 documented factor produce the -20 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -20Direct Pakistan-Afghanistan border hostilitiesActive event · 2025
Official statements document direct attacks and responses by Pakistani and Afghan forces in October 2025; a May 2026 statement records continued cross-border attacks despite a temporary pause.
Coverage gap: No qualifying frozen dispute or dispute-settlement rule is activated by the reviewed evidence.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish the exceptional or strong exchange required by a frozen societal rule.
+8 in 2015 → -20 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Afghanistan → Pakistan and Pakistan → Afghanistan remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Direct Pakistan-Afghanistan border hostilities
Official statements document direct attacks and responses by Pakistani and Afghan forces in October 2025; a May 2026 statement records continued cross-border attacks despite a temporary pause.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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