Cuba → United States
This score represents Cuba's relationship toward United States. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: No 2015 evidence met a frozen security cooperation or active-war rule.
5 documented factors produce the -10 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Sustained diplomatic channel restores embassiesBaseline rule · 2015
Leader-directed negotiating teams completed the reciprocal re-establishment of diplomatic relations and created an ongoing official channel.
- -15Profound political differences and the embargo remainedBaseline rule · 2015
Restored diplomacy coexisted with formally acknowledged profound political and human-rights differences and the continuing statutory embargo.
- -15New sector-linked sanctions intensify pressureActive event · 2026
The executive action broadened restrictions to actors operating in Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial-services and security sectors.
- +20Normalization framework broadens engagementActive event · 2016
The policy directive institutionalized cooperation, regulatory openings, direct travel, commerce and societal contact while preserving acknowledged differences.
- -10United States reverses part of the normalization openingActive event · 2017
New policy restricted transactions and travel and renewed pressure on the Cuban government without closing restored embassies.
3 documented factors produce the -25 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- -25New sector-linked sanctions intensify pressureActive event · 2026
The executive action broadened restrictions to actors operating in Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial-services and security sectors.
- +15Normalization framework broadens engagementActive event · 2016
The policy directive institutionalized cooperation, regulatory openings, direct travel, commerce and societal contact while preserving acknowledged differences.
- -15United States reverses part of the normalization openingActive event · 2017
New policy restricted transactions and travel and renewed pressure on the Cuban government without closing restored embassies.
Coverage gap: Cuba-reported 2015 trade is unavailable, so no frozen economic baseline rule is activated.
3 documented factors produce the -35 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- -30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- -10New sector-linked sanctions intensify pressureActive event · 2026
The executive action broadened restrictions to actors operating in Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial-services and security sectors.
- +5Normalization framework broadens engagementActive event · 2016
The policy directive institutionalized cooperation, regulatory openings, direct travel, commerce and societal contact while preserving acknowledged differences.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed source acknowledges profound differences but does not establish the frozen evidentiary threshold for a specific territorial, boundary or cyber rule.
3 documented factors produce the +25 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Deep family ties and expanding people-to-people travelBaseline rule · 2015
The official record documented deep family and friendship bonds and concrete expansion of travel, educational and people-to-people contacts.
- +15Normalization framework broadens engagementActive event · 2016
The policy directive institutionalized cooperation, regulatory openings, direct travel, commerce and societal contact while preserving acknowledged differences.
- -10United States reverses part of the normalization openingActive event · 2017
New policy restricted transactions and travel and renewed pressure on the Cuban government without closing restored embassies.
-6 in 2015 → -12 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
1 point
Cuba → United States and United States → Cuba remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
New sector-linked sanctions intensify pressure
The executive action broadened restrictions to actors operating in Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial-services and security sectors.
Normalization framework broadens engagement
The policy directive institutionalized cooperation, regulatory openings, direct travel, commerce and societal contact while preserving acknowledged differences.
United States reverses part of the normalization opening
New policy restricted transactions and travel and renewed pressure on the Cuban government without closing restored embassies.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →