Eritrea → Ethiopia
This score represents Eritrea's relationship toward Ethiopia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
3 documented factors produce the -30 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Militarized unresolved boundaryBaseline rule · 2015
The later peace declaration confirms that a state of war and unresolved boundary decision persisted through the baseline.
- +35State of war endedActive event · 2018
The governments restored peace, diplomatic and transport links and committed to implement the boundary decision.
- -25Renewed bilateral tensionsActive event · 2025
The UN Secretary-General warned of renewed tensions and called for recommitment to the Algiers peace framework.
3 documented factors produce the +15 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -15Longstanding interstate disputeBaseline rule · 2015
UN reporting describes a longstanding dispute requiring normalization and resolution.
- +50State of war endedActive event · 2018
The governments restored peace, diplomatic and transport links and committed to implement the boundary decision.
- -20Renewed bilateral tensionsActive event · 2025
The UN Secretary-General warned of renewed tensions and called for recommitment to the Algiers peace framework.
1 documented factor produce the +15 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15State of war endedActive event · 2018
The governments restored peace, diplomatic and transport links and committed to implement the boundary decision.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 economic rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
1 documented factor produce the +30 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
3 documented factors produce the -25 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Boundary decision remained unresolvedBaseline rule · 2015
The 2018 declaration committed implementation of the boundary decision, confirming it remained unresolved at baseline.
- +40State of war endedActive event · 2018
The governments restored peace, diplomatic and transport links and committed to implement the boundary decision.
- -15Renewed bilateral tensionsActive event · 2025
The UN Secretary-General warned of renewed tensions and called for recommitment to the Algiers peace framework.
1 documented factor produce the +20 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +20State of war endedActive event · 2018
The governments restored peace, diplomatic and transport links and committed to implement the boundary decision.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 societal rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
-19 in 2015 → -3 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Eritrea → Ethiopia and Ethiopia → Eritrea remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
State of war ended
The governments restored peace, diplomatic and transport links and committed to implement the boundary decision.
Renewed bilateral tensions
The UN Secretary-General warned of renewed tensions and called for recommitment to the Algiers peace framework.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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