Estonia → Russia
This score represents Estonia's relationship toward Russia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
2 documented factors produce the -65 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Sustained security rivalryBaseline rule · 2015
The official record supports the frozen sustained security rivalry criterion for Russia and Estonia in the 2015 baseline.
- -25Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
2 documented factors produce the -45 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -15Serious unresolved political frictionBaseline rule · 2015
The official record supports the frozen serious unresolved political friction criterion for Russia and Estonia in the 2015 baseline.
- -30Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
2 documented factors produce the -10 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- -30Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
- +20Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
Coverage gap: 2015 reporter-side trade was below the frozen threshold or unavailable, and no additional qualifying economic institution was evidenced.
1 documented factor produce the -25 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- -25Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish another frozen territorial, coercion or settled-order rule.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish national-scale people-to-people exchange meeting the frozen societal threshold.
-16 in 2015 → -36 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
3 points
Estonia → Russia and Russia → Estonia remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral rupture
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →