India → Pakistan
This score represents India's relationship toward Pakistan. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
3 documented factors produce the -45 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Militarized Line of ControlBaseline rule · 2015
UN military observers monitor the ceasefire between armed forces across Jammu and Kashmir.
- +15Formal ceasefire monitoringBaseline rule · 2015
The United Nations observer mission provides a formal security guardrail around the ceasefire.
- -20Renewed hostilities followed by ceasefireActive event · 2025
Renewed armed hostilities materially worsened relations before the parties agreed a ceasefire on 10 May 2025.
2 documented factors produce the -30 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -15Serious unresolved Kashmir frictionBaseline rule · 2015
The continuing UN mission reflects major unresolved interstate political friction.
- -15Renewed hostilities followed by ceasefireActive event · 2025
Renewed armed hostilities materially worsened relations before the parties agreed a ceasefire on 10 May 2025.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 economic rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
1 documented factor produce the +30 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
3 documented factors produce the -50 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Unresolved Kashmir disputeBaseline rule · 2015
The UN mission continues to address the disputed ceasefire line in Jammu and Kashmir.
- +15UN dispute-management guardrailBaseline rule · 2015
UNMOGIP constitutes a formal mechanism for observing and reporting ceasefire developments.
- -15Renewed hostilities followed by ceasefireActive event · 2025
Renewed armed hostilities materially worsened relations before the parties agreed a ceasefire on 10 May 2025.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 societal rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
-12 in 2015 → -23 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
India → Pakistan and Pakistan → India remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Renewed hostilities followed by ceasefire
Renewed armed hostilities materially worsened relations before the parties agreed a ceasefire on 10 May 2025.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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