Japan → China
This score represents Japan's relationship toward China. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
2 documented factors produce the -65 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Japan identifies sustained regional and maritime security pressureBaseline rule · 2015
Japan's official reporting documents persistent East China Sea security concerns and activity around the Senkaku Islands.
- -25East China Sea security pressure intensifiesActive event · 2021
Japan records sustained concern about unilateral maritime activity and the security environment around the Senkaku Islands.
6 documented factors produce the +2 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Leader contact supports gradual improvementBaseline rule · 2015
Official reporting records leader and ministerial contacts during an improving but still difficult relationship.
- +10Multiple high-level and maritime dialoguesBaseline rule · 2015
The countries maintained leader, foreign-minister and maritime consultation channels during 2015.
- -15History and maritime friction remainBaseline rule · 2015
Official records describe persistent political tension alongside improving contacts.
- -8East China Sea security pressure intensifiesActive event · 2021
Japan records sustained concern about unilateral maritime activity and the security environment around the Senkaku Islands.
- -15Fukushima water dispute escalatesActive event · 2023
China strongly opposes Japan's ocean discharge decision, producing a continuing diplomatic and economic dispute.
- +10Monitoring agreement moderates Fukushima disputeActive event · 2024
Multiple consultations produce a monitoring and sampling arrangement without eliminating China's underlying objection.
3 documented factors produce the +28 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +35Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -15Fukushima water dispute escalatesActive event · 2023
China strongly opposes Japan's ocean discharge decision, producing a continuing diplomatic and economic dispute.
- +8Monitoring agreement moderates Fukushima disputeActive event · 2024
Multiple consultations produce a monitoring and sampling arrangement without eliminating China's underlying objection.
1 documented factor produce the +15 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
6 documented factors produce the -92 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Diaoyu/Senkaku sovereignty disputeBaseline rule · 2015
Both governments maintained incompatible sovereignty positions over the islands and surrounding waters.
- -40Maritime control remains contestedBaseline rule · 2015
China's official position treats Japan's administrative actions as unilateral coercion affecting Chinese territorial interests.
- +15Maritime crisis-management consultationsBaseline rule · 2015
The two sides continued negotiations on a maritime and air communication mechanism to prevent escalation.
- -15East China Sea security pressure intensifiesActive event · 2021
Japan records sustained concern about unilateral maritime activity and the security environment around the Senkaku Islands.
- -10Fukushima water dispute escalatesActive event · 2023
China strongly opposes Japan's ocean discharge decision, producing a continuing diplomatic and economic dispute.
- +8Monitoring agreement moderates Fukushima disputeActive event · 2024
Multiple consultations produce a monitoring and sampling arrangement without eliminating China's underlying objection.
2 documented factors produce the +10 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Substantial societal exchangeBaseline rule · 2015
Official reporting records expanding tourism, youth and local exchanges despite political tension.
- -10Fukushima water dispute escalatesActive event · 2023
China strongly opposes Japan's ocean discharge decision, producing a continuing diplomatic and economic dispute.
-15 in 2015 → -27 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
9 points
Japan → China and China → Japan remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
East China Sea security pressure intensifies
Japan records sustained concern about unilateral maritime activity and the security environment around the Senkaku Islands.
Fukushima water dispute escalates
China strongly opposes Japan's ocean discharge decision, producing a continuing diplomatic and economic dispute.
Monitoring agreement moderates Fukushima dispute
Multiple consultations produce a monitoring and sampling arrangement without eliminating China's underlying objection.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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