Japan → Russia
This score represents Japan's relationship toward Russia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
1 documented factor produce the -25 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -25Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not establish an additional frozen bilateral security rule or collective-defence obligation.
2 documented factors produce the -45 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -15Serious unresolved political frictionBaseline rule · 2015
The official record supports the frozen serious unresolved political friction criterion for Russia and Japan in the 2015 baseline.
- -30Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
3 documented factors produce the -30 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -30Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
- -20Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
1 documented factor produce the -25 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- -25Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral ruptureActive event · 2022
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
1 documented factor produce the -50 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Unresolved territorial disputeBaseline rule · 2015
The official record supports the frozen unresolved territorial dispute criterion for Russia and Japan in the 2015 baseline.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish national-scale people-to-people exchange meeting the frozen societal threshold.
-7 in 2015 → -34 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Japan → Russia and Russia → Japan remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Ukraine invasion drives a broad bilateral rupture
Russia's full-scale invasion and the official political and economic response sharply reduced security, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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