Papua New Guinea → Australia
This score represents Papua New Guinea's relationship toward Australia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
3 documented factors produce the +95 security assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Standing Australia-PNG security consultationBaseline rule · 2015
The 1987 principles and 2013 declaration sustained consultation and practical cooperation on external attack, border security, policing and regional stability.
- +60Australia-PNG mutual-defence treaty enters into forceActive event · 2026
The Pukpuk Treaty elevated the relationship to an alliance and created a mutual-defence obligation.
- +20Australia-PNG bilateral security agreement enters into forceActive event · 2024
The legally binding agreement broadened and modernised cooperation across policing, defence and other security fields.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not activate an additional frozen bilateral diplomatic rule for the 2015 baseline.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: Reporter-side 2015 goods trade does not reach a frozen material-trade threshold, or is unavailable.
2 documented factors produce the +25 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Shared Commonwealth institutional frameworkBaseline rule · 2015
Australia and the counterpart participated in the Commonwealth's standing framework of political values, consultation and practical cooperation in 2015.
- +15Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
1 documented factor produce the +15 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Institutionally managed Torres Strait boundaryBaseline rule · 2015
Australia and Papua New Guinea recognised and jointly managed their maritime boundary and protected-zone arrangements under the Torres Strait Treaty.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish the exceptional or strong exchange required by a frozen societal rule.
+9 in 2015 → +37 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Papua New Guinea → Australia and Australia → Papua New Guinea remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Australia-PNG mutual-defence treaty enters into force
The Pukpuk Treaty elevated the relationship to an alliance and created a mutual-defence obligation.
Australia-PNG bilateral security agreement enters into force
The legally binding agreement broadened and modernised cooperation across policing, defence and other security fields.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →