THE WORLD, CONNECTED
DIRECTIONAL RELATIONSHIP · 2026

Poland → Ukraine

This score represents Poland's relationship toward Ukraine. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.

POL → UKR+46Partner95% evidence confidenceBroad sourced evidence
UKR → POL+45Partner1-point gap · not analytically meaningful
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL

Current component scores

Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.

Security+45

2 documented factors produce the +45 security assessment.

Why this score?
  1. +35Wartime strategic support
    Active event · 2022

    Poland provided extensive security, diplomatic and social support after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

  2. +10Strategic partnership reaffirmed
    Active event · 2025

    Leaders reaffirmed security cooperation, Polish support and coordination on Ukraine's European integration.

Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 security rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.

Diplomacy+60

4 documented factors produce the +60 diplomacy assessment.

Why this score?
  1. +35Established strategic partnership
    Baseline rule · 2015

    Official defence and later joint records describe the bilateral relationship as a strategic partnership.

  2. +25Wartime strategic support
    Active event · 2022

    Poland provided extensive security, diplomatic and social support after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

  3. +10Strategic partnership reaffirmed
    Active event · 2025

    Leaders reaffirmed security cooperation, Polish support and coordination on Ukraine's European integration.

  4. -10Agricultural dispute caused diplomatic friction
    Active event · 2023

    The agricultural-import dispute and public remarks prompted an urgent diplomatic summons without ending broader support.

Economic+5

2 documented factors produce the +5 economic assessment.

Why this score?
  1. -15Agricultural dispute caused diplomatic friction
    Active event · 2023

    The agricultural-import dispute and public remarks prompted an urgent diplomatic summons without ending broader support.

  2. +20Annual methodology 1.1 recalculation
    Annual recalculation · 2026

    The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.

Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 economic rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.

Alignment+100

4 documented factors produce the +100 alignment assessment.

Why this score?
  1. +50Aligned security and European objectives
    Baseline rule · 2015

    Official commitments document coordinated defence, foreign-policy and European integration action.

  2. +30United Nations voting alignment
    Baseline rule · 2015

    A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.

  3. +25Wartime strategic support
    Active event · 2022

    Poland provided extensive security, diplomatic and social support after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

  4. +10Strategic partnership reaffirmed
    Active event · 2025

    Leaders reaffirmed security cooperation, Polish support and coordination on Ukraine's European integration.

The displayed value is limited to the model’s −100 to +100 component range.

Societal+15

2 documented factors produce the +15 societal assessment.

Why this score?
  1. +20Wartime strategic support
    Active event · 2022

    Poland provided extensive security, diplomatic and social support after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

  2. -5Agricultural dispute caused diplomatic friction
    Active event · 2023

    The agricultural-import dispute and public remarks prompted an urgent diplomatic summons without ending broader support.

Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 societal rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.

CHANGE SINCE 2015

+22 in 2015 → +46 in 2026

The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.

ACTIVE EVIDENCE

Events affecting the current score

+20

Wartime strategic support

Poland provided extensive security, diplomatic and social support after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

+7

Strategic partnership reaffirmed

Leaders reaffirmed security cooperation, Polish support and coordination on Ukraine's European integration.

-4

Agricultural dispute caused diplomatic friction

The agricultural-import dispute and public remarks prompted an urgent diplomatic summons without ending broader support.

Interpret with care

This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.

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