Russia → Germany
This score represents Russia's relationship toward Germany. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
2 documented factors produce the -55 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -45Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationshipActive event · 2022
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
- -10German military support and EU sanctions remain extensiveActive event · 2026
Germany continues major support for Ukraine while EU sanctions against Russia remain active.
Coverage gap: The 2015 evidence shows serious strategic tension, but no frozen v1 Security rule captured Russia's direction toward Germany without substituting Germany's threat assessment for Russia's posture.
4 documented factors produce the -30 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +20Minsk diplomacy maintains leader engagementBaseline rule · 2015
Russia and Germany participated at leader level in the negotiated Minsk package and committed to a political process.
- -15Ukraine and European security create major frictionBaseline rule · 2015
Germany linked sanctions to Russian implementation of the Minsk commitments and documented serious disagreement over the European security order.
- -30Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationshipActive event · 2022
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
- -5German military support and EU sanctions remain extensiveActive event · 2026
Germany continues major support for Ukraine while EU sanctions against Russia remain active.
5 documented factors produce the -90 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- -40EU sectoral sanctions remain activeBaseline rule · 2015
EU measures affecting finance, energy, defence and dual-use exchange remained in force in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine.
- +20Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -40Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationshipActive event · 2022
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
- -10German military support and EU sanctions remain extensiveActive event · 2026
Germany continues major support for Ukraine while EU sanctions against Russia remain active.
- -20Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
2 documented factors produce the -80 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Opposing positions on Ukraine and European securityBaseline rule · 2015
Russia's actions in Ukraine placed it opposite Germany's documented position on territorial integrity, sanctions and NATO reassurance.
- -30Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationshipActive event · 2022
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
1 documented factor produce the -20 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -20Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationshipActive event · 2022
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
Coverage gap: Russia and Germany had no bilateral territorial claim, but their Ukraine disagreement was too severe to activate the frozen settled-order rule.
1 documented factor produce the -15 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- -15Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationshipActive event · 2022
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
Coverage gap: The reviewed 2015 official records did not activate a frozen v1 societal rule.
-10 in 2015 → -54 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Russia → Germany and Germany → Russia remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Full-scale invasion transforms the bilateral relationship
Germany identifies Russia's attack as a breach of international law, supplies weapons to Ukraine and adopts unprecedented sanctions.
German military support and EU sanctions remain extensive
Germany continues major support for Ukraine while EU sanctions against Russia remain active.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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