Timor-Leste → Indonesia
This score represents Timor-Leste's relationship toward Indonesia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not activate an additional frozen security rule for the 2015 baseline.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not activate an additional frozen bilateral diplomatic rule for the 2015 baseline.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: Reporter-side 2015 goods trade does not reach a frozen material-trade threshold, or is unavailable.
2 documented factors produce the +45 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- +15Timor-Leste joins ASEANActive event · 2025
Timor-Leste's accession placed it and Indonesia under the ASEAN Charter's common institutional framework.
1 documented factor produce the +15 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Institutional land-boundary negotiationsBaseline rule · 2015
A 2013 boundary addendum and continuing negotiations provided a formal channel for the remaining Indonesia-Timor-Leste border segments entering 2015.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish the exceptional or strong exchange required by a frozen societal rule.
+7 in 2015 → +9 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Timor-Leste → Indonesia and Indonesia → Timor-Leste remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Timor-Leste joins ASEAN
Timor-Leste's accession placed it and Indonesia under the ASEAN Charter's common institutional framework.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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