Türkiye → Russia
This score represents Türkiye's relationship toward Russia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
2 documented factors produce the -15 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -25Syria crisis ruptured relationsActive event · 2015
The Syria-related aircraft incident drove a severe deterioration in security, diplomacy and economic ties.
- +10Bilateral normalization beganActive event · 2016
The governments restored high-level contacts and practical cooperation from 2016.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 security rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
5 documented factors produce the -7 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +10High Level Cooperation CouncilBaseline rule · 2015
A standing leaders-led cooperation council had operated since 2010.
- -15Severe Syria-related frictionBaseline rule · 2015
Official records describe the Syrian conflict as a serious test for bilateral political relations.
- -35Syria crisis ruptured relationsActive event · 2015
The Syria-related aircraft incident drove a severe deterioration in security, diplomacy and economic ties.
- +25Bilateral normalization beganActive event · 2016
The governments restored high-level contacts and practical cooperation from 2016.
- +8Energy cooperation deepenedActive event · 2020
The TurkStream project and continuing trade and tourism ties deepened practical cooperation.
5 documented factors produce the +45 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Institutional economic cooperationBaseline rule · 2015
Standing bilateral institutions supported extensive trade, energy and tourism cooperation.
- +20Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -15Syria crisis ruptured relationsActive event · 2015
The Syria-related aircraft incident drove a severe deterioration in security, diplomacy and economic ties.
- +10Bilateral normalization beganActive event · 2016
The governments restored high-level contacts and practical cooperation from 2016.
- +15Energy cooperation deepenedActive event · 2020
The TurkStream project and continuing trade and tourism ties deepened practical cooperation.
No baseline rule or active event moves this component away from neutral.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 disputes rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed official record does not activate a frozen Engine 1.0 societal rule beyond any listed or quantitative observation.
-13 in 2015 → +1 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
3 points
Türkiye → Russia and Russia → Türkiye remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Syria crisis ruptured relations
The Syria-related aircraft incident drove a severe deterioration in security, diplomacy and economic ties.
Bilateral normalization began
The governments restored high-level contacts and practical cooperation from 2016.
Energy cooperation deepened
The TurkStream project and continuing trade and tourism ties deepened practical cooperation.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →