Ukraine → Russia
This score represents Ukraine's relationship toward Russia. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
3 documented factors produce the -100 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -70Continuing armed conflict in eastern UkraineBaseline rule · 2015
UN human-rights monitoring documented ongoing hostilities and their civilian consequences throughout 2015.
- -50Full-scale invasionActive event · 2022
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
- -10War and territorial contest persistActive event · 2023
Continuing sanctions and official records confirm that the active-war condition remains unresolved.
The displayed value is limited to the model’s −100 to +100 component range.
2 documented factors produce the -100 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Ordinary relations displaced by conflict diplomacyBaseline rule · 2015
International diplomacy centred on sanctions and Minsk implementation after Russia’s actions against Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
- -50Full-scale invasionActive event · 2022
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
5 documented factors produce the -95 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Broad economic sanctions and trade disruptionBaseline rule · 2015
EU measures targeted finance, energy, defence and dual-use exchange in response to Russia’s destabilising role.
- +20Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -45Full-scale invasionActive event · 2022
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
- -10War and territorial contest persistActive event · 2023
Continuing sanctions and official records confirm that the active-war condition remains unresolved.
- -20Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
2 documented factors produce the -85 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Opposing positions on Ukraine’s territorial orderBaseline rule · 2015
The UN resolution reaffirming Ukraine’s borders captures the central strategic rupture between the two states.
- -35Full-scale invasionActive event · 2022
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
3 documented factors produce the -100 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- -80Attempted change to Crimea’s status rejectedBaseline rule · 2015
The General Assembly affirmed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and declared the Crimea referendum invalid.
- -50Full-scale invasionActive event · 2022
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
- -10War and territorial contest persistActive event · 2023
Continuing sanctions and official records confirm that the active-war condition remains unresolved.
The displayed value is limited to the model’s −100 to +100 component range.
2 documented factors produce the -85 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Civilian harm and displacementBaseline rule · 2015
UN monitoring recorded conflict-related casualties, displacement and rights violations affecting communities across Ukraine.
- -45Full-scale invasionActive event · 2022
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
-70 in 2015 → -100 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Ukraine → Russia and Russia → Ukraine remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Full-scale invasion
The UN General Assembly identifies aggression against Ukraine and demands Russian withdrawal.
War and territorial contest persist
Continuing sanctions and official records confirm that the active-war condition remains unresolved.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →