United States → Canada
This score represents United States's relationship toward Canada. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
3 documented factors produce the +95 security assessment.
Why this score?
- +60NATO collective-defence obligationBaseline rule · 2015
NATO collective-defence obligation.
- +25NORAD established binational command and integrated continental defenceBaseline rule · 2015
NORAD established binational command and integrated continental defence.
- +10Partnership roadmap and NORAD modernizationActive event · 2021
The governments renew cross-domain cooperation and agree to modernize their binational defence command.
6 documented factors produce the +30 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- +35An exceptionally close and enduring bilateral partnershipBaseline rule · 2015
An exceptionally close and enduring bilateral partnership.
- +10Standing bilateral, alliance, border and defence channelsBaseline rule · 2015
Standing bilateral, alliance, border and defence channels.
- -15Tariffs create serious economic frictionActive event · 2025
New U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and Canada's response strain the trade relationship while the alliance remains in force.
- +10Partnership roadmap and NORAD modernizationActive event · 2021
The governments renew cross-domain cooperation and agree to modernize their binational defence command.
- -15Additional U.S. tariffs deepen the disputeActive event · 2026
The additional tariff action and disagreement over the future trade framework add current diplomatic and economic friction.
- +5USMCA enters into forceActive event · 2020
The modernized North American trade agreement renews the rules governing the integrated continental economy.
4 documented factors produce the +10 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- +50Bilateral trade thresholdBaseline rule · 2015
Reported trade activates the absolute methodology route using the latest observation available for this year.
- -30Tariffs create serious economic frictionActive event · 2025
New U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and Canada's response strain the trade relationship while the alliance remains in force.
- -25Additional U.S. tariffs deepen the disputeActive event · 2026
The additional tariff action and disagreement over the future trade framework add current diplomatic and economic friction.
- +15USMCA enters into forceActive event · 2020
The modernized North American trade agreement renews the rules governing the integrated continental economy.
4 documented factors produce the +60 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +50Broad alignment on continental and allied securityBaseline rule · 2015
Broad alignment on continental and allied security.
- +15United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- +10Partnership roadmap and NORAD modernizationActive event · 2021
The governments renew cross-domain cooperation and agree to modernize their binational defence command.
- -15Annual methodology 1.1 recalculationAnnual recalculation · 2026
The current component replaces the 2015 quantitative threshold or time-bounded structural package with the evidence applicable in the selected year.
1 documented factor produce the +15 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15Durable cooperative order across the shared borderBaseline rule · 2015
Durable cooperative order across the shared border.
1 documented factor produce the +35 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- +35Exceptional cross-border family, travel and institutional linksBaseline rule · 2015
Exceptional cross-border family, travel and institutional links.
+57 in 2015 → +50 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
2 points
United States → Canada and Canada → United States remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Tariffs create serious economic friction
New U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and Canada's response strain the trade relationship while the alliance remains in force.
Partnership roadmap and NORAD modernization
The governments renew cross-domain cooperation and agree to modernize their binational defence command.
Additional U.S. tariffs deepen the dispute
The additional tariff action and disagreement over the future trade framework add current diplomatic and economic friction.
USMCA enters into force
The modernized North American trade agreement renews the rules governing the integrated continental economy.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
Explore the full timeline and sources in the atlas →