United States → Iran
This score represents United States's relationship toward Iran. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
3 documented factors produce the -90 security assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Official policy treated the other state as a sustained security challenge despite nuclear diplomacyBaseline rule · 2015
Official policy treated the other state as a sustained security challenge despite nuclear diplomacy.
- -60Direct war ends in a ceasefireActive event · 2026
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
- +10Iran and the United States sign a post-war memorandumActive event · 2026
The June memorandum establishes a new nuclear and navigation guardrail while detailed implementation remains unsettled.
4 documented factors produce the -60 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -15Sanctions, distrust and regional policy remained serious bilateral frictionBaseline rule · 2015
Sanctions, distrust and regional policy remained serious bilateral friction.
- -45Direct war ends in a ceasefireActive event · 2026
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
- -25U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA restores nuclear sanctionsActive event · 2018
Withdrawal and phased sanctions reimposition removed the principal 2015 diplomatic guardrail.
- +25Iran and the United States sign a post-war memorandumActive event · 2026
The June memorandum establishes a new nuclear and navigation guardrail while detailed implementation remains unsettled.
4 documented factors produce the -90 economic assessment.
Why this score?
- -40Broad U.S. financial and sectoral sanctions remained in force through JCPOA Adoption DayBaseline rule · 2015
Broad U.S. financial and sectoral sanctions remained in force through JCPOA Adoption Day.
- -25Direct war ends in a ceasefireActive event · 2026
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
- -35U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA restores nuclear sanctionsActive event · 2018
Withdrawal and phased sanctions reimposition removed the principal 2015 diplomatic guardrail.
- +10Iran and the United States sign a post-war memorandumActive event · 2026
The June memorandum establishes a new nuclear and navigation guardrail while detailed implementation remains unsettled.
Coverage gap: Trade was below the material threshold; the sanctions rule captures the documented economic structure.
3 documented factors produce the -100 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- -50Official positions placed the states on opposing sides of central regional security questionsBaseline rule · 2015
Official positions placed the states on opposing sides of central regional security questions.
- -30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- -20Direct war ends in a ceasefireActive event · 2026
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
4 documented factors produce the -20 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15The JCPOA created a verified formal mechanism for managing the nuclear disputeBaseline rule · 2015
The JCPOA created a verified formal mechanism for managing the nuclear dispute.
- -35Direct war ends in a ceasefireActive event · 2026
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
- -20U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA restores nuclear sanctionsActive event · 2018
Withdrawal and phased sanctions reimposition removed the principal 2015 diplomatic guardrail.
- +20Iran and the United States sign a post-war memorandumActive event · 2026
The June memorandum establishes a new nuclear and navigation guardrail while detailed implementation remains unsettled.
1 documented factor produce the -20 societal assessment.
Why this score?
- -20Direct war ends in a ceasefireActive event · 2026
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
Coverage gap: No reviewed 2015 official source activated a frozen-v1 national-scale societal-exchange rule.
-33 in 2015 → -75 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
United States → Iran and Iran → United States remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
Direct war ends in a ceasefire
Operation Epic Fury produced sustained direct hostilities before the April ceasefire; the current snapshot retains the recent-lethal-clash ceiling rather than an active-war cap.
U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA restores nuclear sanctions
Withdrawal and phased sanctions reimposition removed the principal 2015 diplomatic guardrail.
Iran and the United States sign a post-war memorandum
The June memorandum establishes a new nuclear and navigation guardrail while detailed implementation remains unsettled.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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