Ethiopia → Egypt
This score represents Ethiopia's relationship toward Egypt. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL
Current component scores
Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not activate an additional frozen security rule for the 2015 baseline.
1 documented factor produce the -15 diplomacy assessment.
Why this score?
- -15GERD dispute remains unresolvedActive event · 2025
Egypt's formal Security Council communication objected to unilateral dam measures and called for a binding agreement, documenting continuing bilateral friction despite the 2015 guardrail.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not activate an additional frozen bilateral diplomatic rule for the 2015 baseline.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: Reporter-side 2015 goods trade does not reach a frozen material-trade threshold, or is unavailable, and no reviewed standing agreement activates another rule.
3 documented factors produce the +55 alignment assessment.
Why this score?
- +10Shared African Union frameworkBaseline rule · 2015
Egypt and the counterpart participated in the African Union's standing continental cooperation framework in 2015.
- +30United Nations voting alignmentBaseline rule · 2015
A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.
- +15Egypt and Ethiopia join BRICSActive event · 2024
Their accessions created an additional standing multilateral policy-coordination framework.
2 documented factors produce the -5 disputes assessment.
Why this score?
- +15GERD Declaration of PrinciplesBaseline rule · 2015
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan signed principles for cooperation, data exchange, peaceful dispute settlement and negotiation over the dam in March 2015.
- -20GERD dispute remains unresolvedActive event · 2025
Egypt's formal Security Council communication objected to unilateral dam measures and called for a binding agreement, documenting continuing bilateral friction despite the 2015 guardrail.
No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.
Why this score?
The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.
Coverage gap: The reviewed record does not establish the exceptional or strong exchange required by a frozen societal rule.
+9 in 2015 → +5 in 2026
The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.
0 points
Ethiopia → Egypt and Egypt → Ethiopia remain independent assessments.
View the reverse direction →ACTIVE EVIDENCE
Events affecting the current score
GERD dispute remains unresolved
Egypt's formal Security Council communication objected to unilateral dam measures and called for a binding agreement, documenting continuing bilateral friction despite the 2015 guardrail.
Egypt and Ethiopia join BRICS
Their accessions created an additional standing multilateral policy-coordination framework.
This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.
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