THE WORLD, CONNECTED
DIRECTIONAL RELATIONSHIP · 2026

Venezuela → United States

This score represents Venezuela's relationship toward United States. The reverse direction is calculated separately and shown alongside it.

VEN → USA-20Competitive74% evidence confidenceBroad sourced evidence
USA → VEN-19Competitive1-point gap · not analytically meaningful
SIX-COMPONENT MODEL

Current component scores

Component values run from −100 to +100 and are combined with the published weights.

Security0

No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.

Why this score?

The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.

Coverage gap: The reviewed 2015 evidence establishes political confrontation but not an active interstate war or the frozen threshold for a major military rivalry.

Diplomacy-40

4 documented factors produce the -40 diplomacy assessment.

Why this score?
  1. -15Targeted sanctions reflect serious political and human-rights friction
    Baseline rule · 2015

    The 2015 executive action targeted Venezuelan officials over democratic institutions, human rights, corruption and repression while explicitly avoiding broad measures against the country.

  2. -25Government-wide sanctions and political rupture deepen confrontation
    Active event · 2019

    The United States blocked Venezuelan government property and expanded financial restrictions amid a rupture over political legitimacy.

  3. +10Electoral roadmap brings limited sanctions relief
    Active event · 2023

    Treasury temporarily eased selected oil, gas and gold restrictions following an electoral roadmap agreement.

  4. -10Electoral dispute triggers renewed targeted sanctions
    Active event · 2024

    Treasury sanctioned officials associated with electoral fraud and repression, reversing part of the preceding diplomatic opening.

Economic-25

3 documented factors produce the -25 economic assessment.

Why this score?
  1. -35Government-wide sanctions and political rupture deepen confrontation
    Active event · 2019

    The United States blocked Venezuelan government property and expanded financial restrictions amid a rupture over political legitimacy.

  2. +20Electoral roadmap brings limited sanctions relief
    Active event · 2023

    Treasury temporarily eased selected oil, gas and gold restrictions following an electoral roadmap agreement.

  3. -10Electoral dispute triggers renewed targeted sanctions
    Active event · 2024

    Treasury sanctioned officials associated with electoral fraud and repression, reversing part of the preceding diplomatic opening.

Coverage gap: Venezuela-reported 2015 trade is unavailable, so no frozen economic baseline rule is activated.

Alignment-45

3 documented factors produce the -45 alignment assessment.

Why this score?
  1. -30United Nations voting alignment
    Baseline rule · 2015

    A rolling three-year comparison of UN General Assembly votes activates the alignment threshold.

  2. -10Government-wide sanctions and political rupture deepen confrontation
    Active event · 2019

    The United States blocked Venezuelan government property and expanded financial restrictions amid a rupture over political legitimacy.

  3. -5Electoral dispute triggers renewed targeted sanctions
    Active event · 2024

    Treasury sanctioned officials associated with electoral fraud and repression, reversing part of the preceding diplomatic opening.

Disputes0

No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.

Why this score?

The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.

Coverage gap: No direct bilateral territorial, boundary or cyber dispute meeting a frozen disputes rule was documented.

Societal0

No reviewed evidence met this component’s scoring threshold.

Why this score?

The model starts every component at zero. No documented condition or active event currently changes this one.

Coverage gap: No evidence met the frozen threshold for sustained national-scale societal exchange.

CHANGE SINCE 2015

-8 in 2015 → -20 in 2026

The change is generated from sourced events and frozen scoring rules, not retrospective editorial adjustment.

ACTIVE EVIDENCE

Events affecting the current score

-12

Government-wide sanctions and political rupture deepen confrontation

The United States blocked Venezuelan government property and expanded financial restrictions amid a rupture over political legitimacy.

+5

Electoral roadmap brings limited sanctions relief

Treasury temporarily eased selected oil, gas and gold restrictions following an electoral roadmap agreement.

-4

Electoral dispute triggers renewed targeted sanctions

Treasury sanctioned officials associated with electoral fraud and repression, reversing part of the preceding diplomatic opening.

Interpret with care

This analytical score is not an objective fact, endorsement or prediction. Confidence reflects evidence coverage, while incomplete or unavailable observations remain explicit. Differences below 5 points are treated as practical ties rather than a meaningful ranking.

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